13 August 2010

Lots of Hurricane Season to Come

The graph above shows all normalized 2010 US hurricane damage (that is, damage estimated to occur with today's coastal development from all past storms, PDF) for all storms that made landfall from August 21st to October 31st, for all years 1900 to 2009.  The graph shows damage that occurred on each day (and the X-axis shows selected dates).  The data comes from the ICAT Damage Estimator.

Even though the current season -- forecasted to be much more active than average -- may appear to be off to a slow start as compared to that forecast, there is a lot of hurricane season left.  September and October account for more than 60% of total historical damage, and if you add in August the total is almost 95%.The most damaging (normalized) storm occurred on September 18, 1926.

3 comments:

boballab said...

Roger You should know better: The amount of Damage done by Hurricanes is not directly proportional to the number of Hurricanes.

We could meet the NOAA predictions for numbers and have all of them miss the US, thus getting a big fat zero on the damage index. Then again we could end up being well below the numbers predicted and have only 1 hit the US, but that 1 might be a Cat 5 straight into Miami. I don't think I need to elaborate what that means.

James said...

That one CAT 5 hurricane that went into Miami occurred on August 24, 1992 - Hurricane Andrew. How well I remember. You might recall that the hurricane center in Coral Gables had their observation tower knocked down.

Razors Edge said...

Like they say, the dice have no memory.

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